So, the NDP is not as weak as we were led to believe

About everyone in the entire blogosphere is talking about the latest SES poll and what it means for the Liberals and Conservatives. So I thought I would just jump in there with some additional commentaries about the smaller parties.

I think it says a lot about how the NDP support is much more solid than many have said in recent months. I can't count how many articles I have been reading predicting the demise of the NDP and how a merger on the left is inevitable. That stuff seemed a little crazy in December and it still does.

Just because the Liberals and Greens elected new leaders who enjoyed some post leadership convention buzz doesn't mean the NDP no longer exists. To be sure I think the Greens are in a good position to make some gains though I would figure they are largely incremental than through the roof. And although Dion is going through some tough growing pains, he may still beat Harper in that next election whenever it is.

But now at least all that writing off the NDP business can stop, since my gut, and SES, is telling me that new democrat support is stable in comparison to the last two elections and is still in a good position to even make substantial gains. Ofcourse much will depend on what happens in the coming months, but i'm at least assured that there is some solid support there.

The real party to write off in the next election is the Bloc. Dion and Harper are putting the squeeze on their support, and the poor position of the PQ right now isn't helping. Teh Bloc is probably going to win the most seats in the next federal election most definitely, but i'm starting to imagine that it may very well be a worse outcome than their lowmarks in 1997 and 2000. But ofcourse that also depends on certain outcomes like that Quebec provincial election.

That is where the bza's Canadian junkie crystal poll ball looks like for the moment anyways...

p.s. I would wager that whichever party comes in second place after the Bloc wins the next election.